Oral Health Policy for Patients With Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus in Chile: A Microsimulation Model Based on Real-world Data

Introduction: Oral diseases and type 2 Diabetes Mellitus (T2DM) constitute an important public health problem in Chile, due to their high prevalence and economic and social impact. T2DM increases the risk of oral diseases such as periodontitis, and the latter worsens the metabolic control of T2DM, increasing the risk of macrovascular and microvascular complications. More than 10% of total health spending in Chile is allocated to the treatment of T2DM, especially for the management of its complications. The main T2DM control program in Chile is the Cardiovascular Health Program (PSCV) that treats more than 900,000 people with T2DM, however, its results are still insufficient. Although periodontal treatment improves the metabolic control of T2DM, the proposed goal of periodontal care coverage for patients with T2DM in the context of the PSCV is only 2%. Therefore, the decision to expand periodontal care coverage to efficiently improve the health status of these patients is crucial. Objective: To evaluate the cost-effectiveness of the current proposal and different decision-making scenarios for increasing periodontal care coverage for patients with T2DM from the perspective of the public health system in Chile. Methods: In the first stage, a prospective observational cohort study will be conducted at the CEMO Villa Sur in Pedro Aguirre Cerda and at the CESFAM Puerto Varas in the commune of Puerto Montt to estimate treatment costs and the effectiveness of periodontal care on glycated hemoglobin (HbA1c) levels in the context of PSCV (real-world data). The intervention cohort will consist of those patients with T2DM receiving periodontal care during 2023, while the comparison cohort will consist of those on the waiting list during the same period, matched 1:1 through Propensity Score Matching. In a second stage the costs and effects of each coverage alternative (2%, 20%, 40%, 60%, 80% and 100%) will be modeled using microsimulation techniques to estimate the projected impact over a lifetime horizon of HbA1c changes on the risk of complications, death and decreased quality of life. Costs for each clinical stage will be obtained from national GES (Explicit Health Guarantees) cost estimates, supplemented by other sources, and quality-adjusted life years will be used as a summary measure of effects. Costs and effects will be combined to estimate the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER). From the probabilistic sensitivity analysis, acceptability curves and frontiers and expected loss curves for the proposed courses of action will be estimated.